Foundations
A short introduction to the research that informs my writing here
Hello!
I’ve been quiet recently for several reasons (like a fractured back, a new war, the list goes on…). But also because I’ve been working on something new! Or, rather, something old.
Firstly:
It occurred to me when I had a meeting recently that none of my professional, academic or research work is posted anywhere. I’ve never really thought about it before, because who cares, right? But as I started recently to go through the many years worth of ideas, papers, consulting projects, frameworks, it seemed outrageous that I have not even attempted to archive some of this stuff even for myself!
Secondly:
Some of the people who have been reading this Substack (and I’m so grateful for that, thank you!), have asked me several times: what exactly is it that you work on?
The smorgasbord of topics I write about here aren't always the same ones I study formally, but I don't really have a switch between the two modes. The same frameworks and structures that have shaped my formal research work, and indeed shape how I think about everything else, means they end up in everything I write here too.
So I figured I may as well post some of that, too.
What is my research, anyway?
In short, I apply complex systems thinking to real-world problems around industries, economies and the financial markets. Most of what I do is research through a novel lens of “architecture”, or in more simple terms, understanding the interactions between systems or institutions, where “outcomes” are usually produced, be it technologies, industries, policies, financial returns.
I do this by creating mathematical models about how dynamical systems work; I then apply these models to problems that I find, most of which are in the space and defense domain, whether through industrial policy, finance, fiscal institutions or technology commercialization.
So this could be:
Why can’t Europe convert its defense spending into military capability?
What do multi-domain military economics mean for the future of warfare?
Why do central bank rate decisions fail to transmit evenly through the real economy?
Why do some countries industrialize and others, with similar endowments, don’t?
Why does geopolitical realignment produce economic fragmentation faster than institutions can adapt?
So:
To that end, I have decided to archive and post my research and my day-to-day work on my Substack, under “Foundations”.
For most of my career, I have thought about how best to communicate academic ideas to the Real World™. I experienced first hand that in academia that you can write many papers on a topic and have zero Real World impact; and simultaneously change policy overnight with a single satire piece written for the Financial Times that included a cat meme.
I’m not saying these briefs will be entertaining enough to contain cat memes, but thankfully nor will I be posting 80-something pages of illegible nonsense either.
TL;DR, I’m really not sure what the best way to present formal work is, yet. However, with the goal of at least archiving my work for myself and not trying to entertain the masses with industrial dynamics, I have decided to do the following:
Translate my work into “mainstream” briefs of a few pages long (but removing confidential data and in some cases generalizing where I am/ have been under NDA).
Update the data, figures, thinking into today’s numbers and apply to relevant scenarios today.
Post and archive them here, in case anybody is interested in reading them (big “if”, I know).
Give people the optionality of emailing me for the full paper, including the formal math models, data, etc.
Find a better way to do this in the future, if I decide that it’s worth it!
And… that’s it! Please reach out if you see anything that you find compelling enough to want more information on, and I’d be only too happy to discuss it in more detail with you!